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Tuesday is election day in California as Gov. Gavin Newsom faces a recall, solely the fourth gubernatorial recall election in U.S. historical past. On this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew checks in on the recall and different upcoming races and discusses how former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of 1 specific candidate is shaping the Wyoming major. In addition they discuss surveys on Democrats’ $3.5 trillion social coverage and local weather change invoice and whether or not they’re or dangerous use of polling. Later within the present, FiveThirtyEight senior writers Maggie Koerth and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux come on to

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Biden has at all times prided himself on his oratorical expertise, which he had honed over time regardless of a childhood stutter. Generally, they labored to his profit — like when he was hailed early in his profession because the chief of a brand new era of Democrats and presided over the Judiciary Committee throughout crucial Supreme Court docket nomination hearings. Generally, his confidence in them was betrayed by the outcomes, like when he went on a riff about Barack Obama’s articulateness throughout the 2008 primaries, or the numerous different moments when he mentioned one thing off the cuff that

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Joe Biden was bluffing with a weak hand again. Faced with the prospect that America’s promised retreat from Afghanistan wouldn’t be complete by month’s end, the commander in chief began backtracking on his exit date last week. “If there’s American citizens left, we’re going to stay to get them all out,” he told ABC News.

But the enemy gets a vote now, thanks to our rush to the exits. The Taliban called him on it, warning that his August 31 deadline—just one week from now!—was a “red line” and crossing it would “provoke a reaction.”

Biden’s counter? To

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