Thu. Jul 29th, 2021

“A shockingly intense heat wave for the location, and for so early in the year,will produce some of the highest readings ever observed across much of the Northwest U.S. and adjacent southwest Canada. Temperatures will soar to dangerous levels – well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in many places –from Friday, June 25, into the following week, in a region where hundreds of thousands of residents lack central air conditioning or any AC at all. For several days, multiple computer forecast models have been spitting out astonishing numbers for Portland, Oregon; Seattle and Spokane, Washington; Vancouver, British Columbia; and other towns and cities. Even with some potential model overestimation, confidence is growing that a truly historic heat wave is on tap. One sign of this is official forecasts from the National Weather Service: They’ve grown bolder through the week as model agreement has solidified and the event has drawn closer. As of midday Thursday, June 24, the National Weather Service forecast was calling for Spokane to hit 110°F on both Monday and Tuesday, June 28 and 29. These would break the city’s all-time high of 108°F from July 26, 1928, and August 4, 1961. In Portland, Sunday is predicted by the National Weather Service to be the hottest day in city history. The forecast high of 109°F would topple the all-time record of 107°F set on July 30, 1965, as well as August 8 and 10, 1981.”

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

  • An extensive and life-threatening heat wave will set up in the Western US this weekend and into next week.
  • This potentially historic heat wave will break many records with all-time record highs in jeopardy as well.
  • Do not underestimate the dangerousness of this long duration event. Again, this could be a life-threatening event, especially for sensitive populations.

Excessive HeatWatches/Warnings/Advisories

Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Advisories have been posted up and down the Western US in advance of the dangerous heat wave that will begin to intensify as we head into the weekend and lingering into much of next week. Locations in the heat headlines include, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, California and Nevada.

What:Temperatures are already well above normal. Heat will continue to build to potentially dangerous to life threatening levels as high pressure builds. There is potential for all-time record high temperatures in some areas. So that means some may experience highs never before felt in the region. Those without adequate access to cooling or proper hydration will be at particularly high risk for heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

When:Generally from Friday through Monday. In some areas, the heat wave may last as late as Thursday of next week.

Local Forecasts

Seattle:Excessive Heat Warning from 2:00 PM Friday to 9:00 PM PDT Monday. Dangerously hot conditions with afternoon highs in the 90s and near 100 possible Saturday through Monday. The All-Time Record High of 103F set on 7/29/2009 could be in jeopardy on Sunday and Monday with the current forecast those days expected to top out around 103F.

Spokane:Excessive Heat Warning from 1:00 PM Friday to 7:00 PM PDT Thursday. Dangerously hot conditions with afternoon highs near and over 100 degrees likely Saturday through Wednesday. The All-Time Recoord High of 108F set in 1961 could be in jeopardy much of next week. The current forecast for Tuesday is 110F.

Portland:Excessive Heat Warning from 10:00 AM Saturday to 11:00 PM PDT Monday. Dangerously hot temperatures of 98 to 103 likely, with temperatures locally 103 to 109 are possible. Overnight low temperatures mostly 65 to 75 degrees. The All-Time Record High of 107F set in 1981 could be in jeopardy on Sunday with the current forecast of 109F.

Boise:Excessive Heat Watch from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Thursday. Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures of 100 to 112 possible in the lower valleys and 90 to 100 in the mountain valleys.

Reno:Excessive Heat Watch from 2:00 PM Sunday to 10:00 MDT Wednesday. Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 105 possible for northeast California, the Sierra Front and Mineral County, and up to 108 degrees possible for the Western Nevada Basin and Range region including Fallon and Lovelock.

Day-By-Day Region Forecasts

Heat Safety.Remember to practice heat safety in these areas. Heat has been the leading cause of weather fatalities in the last 30 years. You can find more information on heat safety from NOAA:

Meteorologist Todd Nelson, Praedictix

Through the first 24 days of June, the Twin Cities is still running nearly +8.5F above average, which is the warmest start to any June on record. We’ve also only had 1.10″ of rain, which is the 12th driest start to any June on record.

Here are the top 20 warmest and driest starts to June (1st – 24th) on record at the MSP Airport. Note that we are currently sitting at the warmest start to any June on record and also the 15th driest start to any June on record. The Driest June 1st – 24th on record was back in 1910 when the Twin Cities only picked up 0.21″ of rain.

Through June 25th, MSP has seen (12) 90F days, which is the 4th most on record. The top spot belongs to 1933, when there were (17) 90F days!

The weather outlook across the region from AM Saturday to midday Sunday shows slightly more unsettled weather moving in across parts of the state. It appears that the best chance of showers/storms will be across southern and southeastern MN with pockets of heavy rainfall possible. Note that weather conditions could turn a little unsettled at times in the Twin Cities as well.

Here’s the extended precipitation outlook from NOAA’s WPC through AM Monday, which shows the heaviest rains along the MN/IA/WI border, where some 1″ to 2″ tallies can’t be ruled out.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday shows temps warming to near 80F, which will be close to if not slightly below average for the end of June. The best chance of showers and storms will develop during the 2nd half of the day.

The meteograms for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps warming into the low 80s by midday and will hover there through the afternoon hours. Chance of showers and storms will increase around midday and will continue through the afternoon hours as well. Winds will generally be out of the northeast with gusts approaching 15mph through the day.

The weather outlook across the region on Saturday shows unsettled weather with chances of showers and storms possible. High temps will be a little cooler than they have been as of late with readings running closer to if not slightly below average for some.

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming into the low/mid 80s through the middle part of next week, which will actually be closer to average for the end of June. We might have a few showers and storms this weekend, but weather conditions are looking somewhat dry again as we head into next week.

Here’s the extended weather outlook from Saturday into Tuesday. Note that widespread showers and storms will be possible across the middle part of the country and into the Great Lakes Region. Some of the storms from near Kansas City, MO to Chicago, IL and Detroit, MI could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

Here’s the rainfall potential through 7PM Sunday across the Midwest. Note that the heaviest will fall in a narrow swath form near Kansas City, MO to Chicago, IL and Detroit, MI. This is where isolated flood concerns will continue through the weekend.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the western US and part of the Midwest. However, cooler than average temps will settle in across the central and southern US.

Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes and floods, heatwaves are often invisible tragedies. NOAA says extreme heat is America’s biggest weather-killer. A 2020 study of 297 counties across the US from 1997-2006 showed an average of 5600 heat-related deaths every year, significantly more than previously thought.

A warming atmosphere is making the hottest days 3-5F warmer than they would be in a world where CO2 levels hadn’t doubled. The frequency of heat waves has tripled in a generation.

All-time record highs may be set in Seattle (103F in 2009) and Portland (107F in 1981) Sunday and Monday, with temperatures 35-50F warmer than average into British Columbia, which is extraordinary.

A stalled storm over the Midwest will keep a few showers and T-storms in our forecast into much of next week. Heaviest rains may fall near the Iowa border (where severe drought is setting in) and models print out an inch of rain over the next week.

We get a break from the heat: 70sand 80s until further notice. We can handle that.

SATURDAY:Showers and T-storms. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 82.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, chance of t-storms. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 64.

SUNDAY:More showers and T-storms. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 79.

MONDAY: AM sun, few PM storms. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 83.

TUESDAY: Ditto. Swarms of showers, storms. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 79.

WEDNESDAY: More sun, late-day pop-up storm. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 84.

THURSDAY: Cooler breeze, lingering showers. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 78.

FRIDAY: Showers east, mild sunshine west. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 66 High: 72.

June 26th

1982: Cold air moves into northern Minnesota. Kulger Township dips to 31 degrees. Duluth registers 36.

June 26th

Average High: 82F(Record: 99F set in 1931)

Average Low: 62F (Record: 46Fset in 1926)

Record Rainfall: 2.54″ set in 1998

Record Snowfall: 0.00″

June 25th

Sunrise: 5:28am

Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15hours & 36minutes

Daylight LOSTsinceyesterday: ~22 seconds

Daylight LOSTsince SummerSolstice (June 20th): ~1 Minute

2.5 Days After Full “Strawberry” Moon

Thursday, June 25th at 1:40 p.m. CDT – Known to every Algonquin tribe. Europeans called it the Rose Moon.

See more from HERE:

Moon, Jupiter, Saturn late night to dawn

On the last nights of June 2021, watch for three worlds in space: the moon, Jupiter, Saturn. Thewaning gibbousmoon is past full on these nights. It’s rising later in the evening or after midnight. On June 25, Saturn follows the moon into the sky by roughly an hour. Jupiter follows an hour or so after Saturn. But the moon is moving, always, toward the east in orbit around Earth. As a result, the moon rises an average 50 minutes later each night. So the moon catches up to Saturn and then Jupiter. On the night of June 26 (morning of June 27), the moon is near Saturn in the sky. By the night of June 27, the moon risesin betweenJupiter and Saturn. And so it goes, as the evenings pass, with the moon shifting continually toward the east.

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

The weather outlook on Saturday shows cooler temps settling in along the Front Range of the Rockies where readings near Denver, CO will only warm into the lower 70s, which will be nearly -15F below average. Meanwhile, HOT temps will develop in the Northwest over the weekend where widespread record highs will be possible, some of which could see All-Time Record Highs!

The national weather outlook through PM Sunday shows widespread showers and storms across the Central US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center the heaviest rainfall through the weekend and into next week will set up from the Texas Panhandle to the Great Lakes. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 3″ to 6″ or more from West Texas to Detroit, MI.

“Tornadoes can have profound effects on meteorologists who issue warnings for them, especially when lives are lost. Chris Darden had just told his wife to take shelter from the tornado headed toward their home in Madison, Ala., when the phone call dropped. The violent storms bearing down on the state onApril 27, 2011, were triggeringwidespread power outages, causing cellular networks to go dark. Unable to reach his wife again, Darden did the only thing he could do: He went back to his desk at the National Weather Service office in Huntsville, where he had just assumed the role of meteorologist in charge. As damage reports started to roll in from his neighborhood, Darden issued warning follow-ups, coordinated with emergency managers, and tried not to worry too much about his wife and daughter. It wasn’t easy. “When the phone goes dead and you start hearing reports of damage from your neighborhood, immediately the worst goes through your mind,” said Darden, now the meteorologist in charge at the Birmingham Weather Service office. “You can’t divest yourself from the reality of what’s going on around you.”

See more from The Washington Post HERE:

“Travelers are flocking to the Sunshine State just when the weather is most turbulent and unpredictable. In April 2020, at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, the number of daily flights overseen by the Federal Aviation Administration dipped below 11,000. Now, with coronavirus vaccination ratestrending upwardand case numbersrelatively low, Americans are ready to travel again. The FAA is managing 40,000 flights a day at this point and expects to handle as many as 48,000 flights daily by the end of the summer. “We’re already seeing traffic is back,” said Daniel Murphy, director of National Airspace System Operations at the FAA. “If you have money, you want to go on vacation. You’re going to places in the United States like Florida.” For the past year, meager air traffic has meant minimal delays, even in the face of inclement weather. With so few flights, planes waylaid by storms weren’t likely to end up in a holding pattern at their destination waiting for an open runway. The recent surge in air traffic, however, has led to more delays, particularly in Florida. Meteorologist photographs stunning cloudburst over Florida from plane Murphy said the number of flights to Florida is actually 10 percent higher than it was at this time in 2019, before the pandemic, posing an unusual challenge for air traffic controllers.”

See more from the Washington Post HERE:

“Scientists have discovered a structure in the distant universe so immense that it is actually challenging our understanding of the universe.Known as the Giant Arc, this crescent-shaped stream of galaxies stretches across 3.3 billion light years, making it about one-fifteenth the radius of the entire observable universe.The unusual discoverywas recently announcedby Alexia Lopez, a PhD student at the University of Central Lancashire who detected the Giant Arc, at the 238th virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society. “It’s so big that it’s hard to explain with our current theories,” Lopez said during her presentation on June 7. Lopez first spotted the structure, which is located 9.2 billion light years from Earth in the constellation Bootes, in observations captured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, based in New Mexico. At the time, she was researching a technique called the magnesium II (MgII) method that probes the spectral fingerprints of ionized magnesium in space to detect structures that might otherwise remain hidden. “The Giant Arc was a serendipitous discovery,” Lopez said in an email. “I was working on understanding the MgII method and how well it worked, when this one particular piece of sky I was testing happened to show the first hints towards something exciting. That’s when I started to look more into this bit of sky and slowly, but surely, the Giant Arc was revealed.”

See more from Vice HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter@TNelsonWX

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